Published analysis

Read the full article on Maldives News: The 100-point surcharge on every dollar the Maldives borrows

Standfirst. A lender is making a Maldives borrower buy insurance against the country itself. The all-in cost approaches 100 basis points a year.

Key facts

  • A Maldives financing document seen by Maldives News requires the borrower to pay for lender-arranged country risk insurance covering expropriation and currency inconvertibility, with cover equal to the outstanding loan plus six months of estimated interest.
  • Estimated cost is 65 to 85 basis points a year plus agent fees and VAT; all-in the drag approaches 100 basis points, about USD 1m a year on a USD 100m loan, priced only when the money is drawn.
  • The inconvertibility peril maps onto the Foreign Currency Act (32/2024, in force January 1, 2025: USD 500 per resort tourist, USD 25 per guesthouse guest) and MMA Regulation 2024/R-91 (effective October 1, 2024).
  • The buffers behind the pricing: official reserves USD 717.9m at end-April 2026 (down from USD 1,331.8m in March), usable reserves around USD 244m, against USD 535m of sovereign external obligations due in H2 2026 per Fitch; the parallel dollar hit a record 21.75 on August 5, 41 per cent over the peg.
  • Across the tourism sector’s roughly USD 875m loan book at April 2026 (MMA data), a flat 1 per cent surcharge would cost about USD 8.75m a year; against a weighted average lending rate of about 11.5 per cent, 100 basis points is roughly an 8.7 per cent rise in annual interest expense.
  • MATI says the MMA governor told the industry in February he intends to repeal mandatory conversion and move toward a floating rate; the MMA has neither confirmed this nor given a timeframe.

FX Risk · FX Regulation · Dollar Shortage · Foreign Reserves · Sovereign Debt · Tourism Industry · Maldives Economy