Status scale: 🟢 normal · 🟡 watch · 🟠 elevated · 🔴 critical. Calls are based on published Maldives News reporting; figures carry the date of the underlying report. See Current Signals for the narrative version and Methodology for how statuses are assigned.
| Indicator | Status | Trend | Note (as of) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parallel FX premium | 🔴 | ↑ | 23.00 vs peg 15.42, roughly 49%; premium was 41% on 5 Aug (24 Aug 2026) |
| Foreign reserves | 🔴 | ↓ | USD 638.0m gross in July, down 52% from March; usable about USD 244m at end-Apr (Jul 2026) |
| Debt service | 🔴 | ↑ | H1 external service USD 1,112.1m, about 2x all of 2025; USD 535m due in H2; 45.7% of debt matures within 12 months (Q2 2026) |
| Fiscal deficit and subsidies | 🟠 | ↑ | Deficit MVR 950.3m vs year-ago surplus; subsidies at 120.6% of full-year budget (13 Aug 2026) |
| FX regulation intensity | 🟠 | ↑ | Conversion mandate doubled to 40% monthly; first licence revoked; fines bill in committee (24 Aug 2026) |
| SOE stress | 🟠 | ↑ | 33% headcount cut across all SOEs by 13 Oct; contested Fenaka dismissals in Addu (22 Aug 2026) |
Critical items
Parallel FX premium. The street dollar moved from a record 21.70 on 3 August to 21.75 on 5 August and 23.00 by 24 August, while the official peg has not moved since 2011. The premium is the price signal for the whole system: importers who cannot source dollars at the banks pay it, and shop prices track the street rate, with food inflation already at 7.28 percent year on year. Detail in FX Risk and A record dollar and the reserve math (5 Aug).
Foreign reserves. In Q2 2026 the state paid external debt service equal to 73.9 percent of the reserves it held when the quarter began, repaying the USD 500m sukuk and the USD 400m RBI swap. Gross reserves of USD 638.0m in July compare with a current account deficit the MMA forecasts at USD 627.7m for 2026, and the Governor accepts reserves are nowhere near the import cover needed to defend the peg. Detail in Foreign Reserves and The quarter that paid out three quarters of reserves (22 Aug).
Debt service. Nearly half the government’s debt, 45.7 percent, matures or needs refinancing within 12 months, with treasury bills alone at MVR 54.4bn. Loan repayments in the year to 13 August ran at MVR 9,715.2m, up 146.6 percent, most of it leaving in foreign currency, and at least one lender is now charging Maldives borrowers close to 100 basis points a year to insure against the country itself. Detail in Sovereign Debt Risk, Nearly half the debt due within a year (21 Aug) and The 100-point surcharge on every borrowed dollar (5 Aug).