Methodology

Every note on this site answers three questions: what is happening, why is it happening, and what happens next. The purpose is not to predict the future perfectly but to detect change earlier than others, following the chain from weak signal to emerging trend to structural change.

The six layers

Each major topic is analysed through six layers:

1. Facts. What do we know? Arrivals moved, a tax changed, the parallel rate printed a new number.
2. Trend. Is the indicator increasing, decreasing, stable, accelerating, decelerating or reversing?
3. Driver. Why is it happening? What sits upstream?
4. Consequence. What does it affect downstream: occupancy, rates, revenue, debt service?
5. Second-order effects. What follows the first impact: renovation spending, contractors, asset quality?
6. Opportunity. Who benefits from the change?

Signal classification

New information is classified before it is filed:

• Signal type: demand, supply, economic, regulatory, aviation, labour, investment, technology, geopolitical or environmental
• Impact: positive, negative, mixed or neutral
• Strength: weak, moderate or strong
• Time horizon: immediate, 3 months, 12 months, 3 years or structural
• Confidence: low, medium or high

Early-warning statuses

Dashboards use a four-step scale: 🟢 normal (no material deterioration), 🟡 watch (weak signals appearing), 🟠 elevated (several indicators moving negatively), 🔴 critical (material industry or financial impact likely). The current board is at Risk Dashboard and the narrative version at Current Signals.

Source quality

Every important source is rated:

• Primary: MMA, Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Finance, MIRA, MACL, Statistics Maldives, resort financial statements, airline schedules
• High: IMF, World Bank, rating agencies, recognised industry reports
• Medium: reputable media, analyst commentary
• Low: social media, rumours, anonymous sources

Low-quality sources may provide signals, but they do not automatically become facts. Contested claims are attributed to whoever made them, and figures carry “as of” dates.

Confidence levels

Findings are graded as confirmed (supported by reliable data), probable (strong evidence but incomplete), possible (reasonable hypothesis) or speculative (weak evidence, monitor only).

Linking philosophy

Notes are connected, not filed. Every note carries at least three wikilinks, chosen by asking three questions: what causes this, what does this affect, and what else moves with it? This prevents isolated notes and makes the graph itself an analytical tool. Topic hubs such as Tourism Industry, Dollar Shortage and Government Fiscal Position anchor the clusters; research notes anchor each published article.

From information to decisions

The system is built to climb a ladder:

flowchart TD
    A[Information] --> B[Knowledge]
    B --> C[Connections]
    C --> D[Signals]
    D --> E[Patterns]
    E --> F[Forecasts]
    F --> G[Opportunities]
    G --> H[Decisions]

Raw information becomes knowledge when verified, connections when linked, signals when classified, patterns when repeated, forecasts when patterns are projected, and opportunities and decisions when someone can act on them. Where a note sits on that ladder should always be visible from its confidence grading and sources. See About for how this site relates to the Maldives News newsroom.