Published analysis
Read the full article on Maldives News: 21.75: a record dollar and the reserve math behind it
Standfirst. The street dollar hit a record 41% over the peg while the MMA stayed silent and its own data shows USD 244m usable against USD 535m due.
Key facts
- The black-market dollar hit a record MVR 21.75 on the morning of August 5, posted at 07:48 on Adhadhu’s tracker, 41 percent above the 15.42 peg; the tracker launched August 3 at 21.70.
- The MMA published no statement across August 3 to 5, checked as of roughly 09:00 on August 5; its last known FX action remains the June 27 allocation boost.
- Official reserves fell to USD 717.9m at end-April 2026 from USD 1,331.8m in March, a drop of roughly USD 614m in one month, per Table 12 of the MMA’s May 2026 monthly statistics; the USD 500m sukuk and USD 400m RBI swap repayments explain the drawdown.
- Usable reserves come to roughly USD 244m at end-April on the MMA’s own proxy method, matching the figure Fitch uses.
- USD 535m of sovereign external obligations fall due in H2 2026 per Fitch, more than twice usable reserves on hand at end-April.
- Fitch upgraded the sovereign from CC to CCC- on June 3; an IMF Article IV staff mission reported on June 16 that debt-distress risk remains high.
Signals & links
Dollar Shortage · Foreign Exchange · Foreign Reserves · Sovereign Debt · Maldives Monetary Authority · Maldives Economy